A footprint says what your portfolio does to the environment. Climate & Nature risk looks the other way: what the environment could do to your portfolio, through the physical hazards facing the places your ingredients come from. Analytics > Risk reads it for the report you pick; a volume report's Risk tab shows the same page for that report.
Headline scores use today's climate, based on recent historical records. The Climate scenarios tab shows the same products under SSP5-8.5 in 2050, the IPCC high-emissions scenario, as a conservative view of a world that does not decarbonise. The 2050 view sits alongside the headline rather than replacing it.
Reading the Risk page
A report picker at the top chooses what the page reads: the current baseline, a past baseline, a historical report or a forecast. A note beside it says what the figures cover. A headline sentence then gives the gist, for example "3 of 18 scored products sit in the high or critical bands. Frost is the largest hazard, at 41%. Spain carries 22% of the risk."
Six key figures follow:
- High or critical: how many of the scored products sit in the high or critical bands, with the spread across all four bands (low, moderate, high, critical) and their share of units. A moderate average with eleven products in the high band is a different situation from one with none, which is why the page leads with the count rather than an average.
- Top hazard: the largest single hazard, by name.
- Deforestation (EUDR): forest lost at the origins of the EUDR commodities you use. A country-level screening, not due diligence.
- Volume exposed: the share of units (or of products) whose recipe is substantially sourced from places that score high for a hazard, and which hazard most of it comes from. Exposure, not a loss figure.
- Expected loss: what the hazards could cost in an average year, in money where the report carries revenue, otherwise as a share of revenue a year, with the worst year in 25 beside it. It counts flood, cyclone and heat only.
- Change by 2050: how the score moves under the 2050 scenario, against today, for the same products.
A coverage line says how many products are scored. Beneath it, Where the risk comes from puts your origins on a map: Selected origin shows the suppliers and commodities behind the origin you pick, and All origins (for example All 12 origins) lists every one. The Hazards card follows.
Then the detail, as tabs:
- Risk sources: where the risk comes from, by product and hazard.
- Top exposures: by commodity and origin; picking a row opens its origin on the map.
- Nature and disclosure: the four nature readings and the ESRS view (below).
- Climate scenarios: the same products under SSP5-8.5 in 2050.
- Highest risk products.
- Expected loss: the loss figures in full.
- Trend, when you are reading the current baseline (below).
- Risk × sourcing, in a workspace on the current baseline: single-sourced ingredients by hazard.
Under the tabs, By product category gives the mean risk score of each product category. See Product categories.
Each product's score is weighted by its volume in the report, so a hazard facing a product you sell in quantity counts for more than the same hazard on one you barely ship. A product with no risk score is left out rather than counted as zero, and the coverage line is how you tell the difference.
Company risk
Company analytics has its own Risk entry. It reads one baseline period at a time across your workspaces. Where your account has the early-access insurance and investor lenses, it adds Insurance (the protection gap) and Investor (scenario resilience) tabs.
Insurance sets what a bad year costs against what you are insured for, one baseline period at a time. Enter the Cover for the period and it shows the expected annual loss, the cover to annual loss (how many typical years the policy absorbs), and for a 1 in 25 and a 1 in 100 year the loss, what is covered and what you carry.
Hazards
The score covers eight hazards: flood, drought, frost, wildfire and smoke, water stress, tropical cyclone, heat and soil degradation. Each is scored where your ingredients are actually sourced, which is why sourcing country matters to this number.
The largest single hazard is called out by name, because the response to frost exposure is not the response to water stress.
Nature readings
Beside the eight hazards sit four nature readings. They are reported on their own, each on its own bands, and never folded into the climate score: they describe standing conditions and a compliance screen, not the chance of an event.
- Biodiversity intactness: biodiversity loss at your sourcing origins (1 minus mean species abundance).
- Ocean acidification: acidification stress at the origins of your marine ingredients. A product with no marine ingredient shows that it does not apply.
- Deforestation (EUDR): forest area lost since 31 December 2020 at the origins of the seven EUDR commodities.
- Logistics disruption: disruption exposure of the ports and rivers your sourcing moves through, with the share of the bill of materials that moves through an exposed one.
Each reading is a mass-weighted mean over the supply chain nodes it applies to, and names its worst node and how much of the product it covers. They describe today's conditions, not 2050, and most origins are read as a country or sea-area average.
The deforestation reading is an indicative screen from the origins modelled on each ingredient, not EUDR due diligence, which is verified at plot level. The card says so.
On a portfolio, they are on the Risk page's Nature and disclosure tab. On a product, open the report and choose Risk in the lens menu at the top: the readings are in the Nature and Compliance section, below the hazards.
On a change model, the risk lens shows the four readings for the original and the modelled product side by side, so you can see whether a reformulation moves you onto or off a more exposed origin.
The ESRS view
The Disclosure view (ESRS E1 to E4) maps every risk axis to its ESRS topic: nine climate axes from the hazards, and three nature axes from the readings (ocean acidification under E3, deforestation and biodiversity intactness under E4). Each row says how many products it covers. A row reads Not yet assessed only for products last scored before the nature readings existed, and recalculating them fills it in. That is not the same as a low score.
Trend
The Trend tab compares the frozen baseline with the same products and unit counts on their latest scores, so what you are reading is movement rather than the effect of adding products since. Risk engine updates move it as well as real change. If the baseline's figures came from an older risk engine, a line says so and Restate re-freezes them on the current one. See How do I reset, restate or read a past baseline?
The current risk engine is v3.2: cyclone losses no longer count winds below storm force.
Hazards scored on only one side show as no movement rather than a movement from zero. A hazard that was not scored at baseline has not gone from nothing to something, it has gone from unknown to known, and showing that as a jump would be wrong.
Where risk comes from
Risk scores are stored when a product is saved or recalculated, and read from those stored results rather than computed while you wait. A product without a score is a coverage gap, not a safe product: it has not been scored yet, most often because it has not been saved or recalculated since the risk lens was switched on.
The commodity view in particular needs a recalculation to populate, so if it looks emptier than the rest, that is why.
The full method
The Methodology page in the app has a Climate & Nature risk tab that sets out the full method: what each hazard measures and where its data comes from, how scores are combined, and the limitations to keep in mind.